Public Loves Playing Favorites

It is common knowledge that the betting public loves playing favorites. It seems the public has a short-sighted mentality that says they are betting on the better team when they lay points with the “chalk.” But is that really the right way to go? I say “no” and I will tell you why.

First, let’s look at this from a strictly law-of-averages perspective. If you bet the favorite, three things can happen and two are not good. The favorite could lose the game straight up or the favorite could win the game, but not by more points than you had to give up. The only way you win is if your favorite wins the game by more points than you had to give up. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will lose your wager.

If you back the underdog, three things can happen and two of those things are in your favor. The underdog could win the game straight up or they could lose the game, but by fewer points than you are receiving. So there is a two-out-of-three chance that you will win your wager.

Two scenarios are common in the football betting world. First, a favorite comes out and exerts their will on their opponent, getting out to a huge lead. But in the NFL, there are no pollsters to impress, so what is the favorite’s motivation to continue running up the score? The players do not care about the point spread. So many times, they “let off the gas” and coast to victory. Have you ever lost a bet by the dreaded “backdoor cover?”

The second scenario sees the favorite come out flat, with a lack of motivation against what they perceive to be an inferior opponent. Maybe the favorite is coming off a huge win against a division rival and has another rival on deck. The underdog (players are almost always motivated in the dog role) comes out firing and takes the early lead. Many times, the favorite will storm back and escape with the win, but not the cover.

By no means am I saying you should only bet underdogs, but it would seem to be a good idea to back an underdog in the right situation as opposed to betting a favorite just because they appear to be the better team. Remember, the better team does not always win and sometimes the team that appears to be the better team really is not.

Records can be deceiving. For example, Team ABC might be 3-0, but they played three teams that haven’t won a game. Team XYZ might be 0-3, but they played three teams that haven’t lost a game. Don’t get caught up in records.

Statistics can also be deceiving. For example, Team ABC may be scoring 30 points per game, but they played against defenses that are allowing 30 points per game. Team XYZ may be scoring only 20 points per game, but they played against tougher defenses that are allowing only 20 points per game. Careful analysis is always required. Do not take statistics at face value.

Many times the stats are skewed or they are not as they would appear to be. For example, Team ABC allowed 400 passing yards last week. But what the stat sheet does not show is that half of those yards were allowed in garbage team after the team was up by 28 in the fourth quarter. Again, thorough analysis is required.

In summary, you should not bet all favorites or all underdogs. True professional bettors wager on primarily underdogs because, as I mentioned earlier, in that scenario, two out of the three scenarios work in your favor. So while betting all underdogs is not the road to betting riches, it is a good idea to first look at taking the points.

Dwayne Bryant owns Bullseye Sports. He has been handicapping successfully for over 20 years. Dwayne provides free handicapper picks, including NCAA football expert picks. Dwayne’s free NFL football picks are some of the most sought-after picks among sports bettors worldwide.

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One Choice Sports Betting Enthusiasts

With the Internet age comes many choices. Shop at the store or shop on the store’s website? Go to the bank to transfer funds or transfer funds online? One choice sports betting enthusiasts have is whether to place their wagers with a local bookie or place their bets with an online sportsbook. Let’s look at why this question has an easy answer.

First, when you sign up with an online sportsbook, you will get a sign-up bonus. These bonuses range from 10% up to 100%. So, for example, if you sign up and want to deposit $1,000, you can expect to have an additional $100 to $1,000 added to your account balance. So, for your $1,000 deposit, you could have up to $2,000 to start betting with. Not bad, right? If only my local bank had a program like that!

Online sportsbooks also offer reload bonuses, which work just like the initial sign-up bonuses, except the reload bonuses are for existing account holders. Each sportsbook has their own limits in regards to the amounts of these bonuses. When was the last time your local bookie gave you even one bonus like that?

Online sportsbooks also offer reduced vigorish or “juice” on certain days or during certain times. While your local bookie offers NFL sides and totals at -110, it is possible to get them at -104 or lower if you’re in the right sportsbook at the right time. Some even offer free bets at times through player reward programs. Think your local bookie has a rewards program for you?

Betting with your local bookie usually requires you to call him. While you can phone in your bets with online sportsbooks, you can also bet through the sportsbook’s website. How many times have you tried calling your local bookie five minutes before kickoff, only to get a busy signal?

Online sportsbooks also give you many options in regards to how you want to deposit and withdraw money. You can use a credit card, Western Union transfer, online accounts such as PayPal and Neteller, electronic funds transfers from your bank account, etc. I would be willing to bet your local bookie only deals in cold, hard cash.

There is one more reason why an online sportsbook is a better option than a local bookie. You have to deposit your money first. Most local bookies will let you bet whatever you want and then “settle up” at the end of the week. This way, it is far too easy to get in way over your head. By depositing only what you can afford into your online sportsbook account, you don’t have to worry about owing several times more than you can afford to lose.

As you can see, there are many reasons why an online sportsbook is a much better option than a local bookie. The internet is the home to many online sportsbooks, which mostly operate offshore. Take the time to do some research and you will find many online sportsbooks with solid reputations for bonuses and timely payouts.

Dwayne Bryant owns Bullseye Sports. He has been handicapping successfully for over 20 years. Dwayne provides winning sports picks and his free football picks are wildly popular in the sports betting community. Dwayne’s free pro football picks are some of the most sought-after picks among sports bettors worldwide.

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Betting Preseason Football

It is true that betting preseason football is very different from regular season football. The method used to cripple the NFL regular season games do not work most of the time when used for defects of a preseason game. Let's see what things you should look at when handicapping NFL preseason football.

One thing you must know is the coaches. Some coaches do not care whether their team wins or loses in the preseason. Their objective is to evaluate the talent level all the way to the very last roster spot. Then there are coaches who are trying to instill a winning attitude in their team and they will put an emphasis on winning the preseason games. Obviously, you have a good betting situation if you can find a coach trying to win going against a coach who is more interested in seeing what his third- and fourth-stringers can do.

Also, do not pay too much attention to the starters. In the preseason, the starters will be out of the game well before the outcome is decided. Starters generally only play a quarter or two, if at all. Most coaches view the second-to-last preseason game as the “dress rehearsal” for the regular season. In that case, the starters may play up to three quarters. In any case, the starters will usually not decide a preseason game.

Pay attention to what the coaches say. This only holds true in the preseason. Read the team’s local paper or team website to find out what the coach’s plan is for the game. It is important to find out who will be on the field in the fourth quarter when the game will likely be decided.

Make sure you know what the quarterback rotation will be for each team. You could find an advantageous position where a veteran quarterback will be playing in the second half against third- and fourth-string defensive backs. On the other hand, a rookie quarterback playing in the second half is a disadvantage to you. Many times, the rookie quarterback is trying to learn the offense and is also not used to playing against the speed of NFL defenders.

Try to find good situations to back a team. For example, you may come across a game where one coach is planning to play his first and second string for most of the game, while the opposing coach is planning to play mostly third and fourth stringers. Also, look for teams that have started 0-2 straight up and are playing their third preseason game at home, especially when the coach has taken some criticism for the team’s poor start in the local papers. That is usually an excellent spot to back the home team in need of a win, especially when they are facing a team that doesn’t have the same motivation.

NFL preseason football betting can be a very profitable time if you understand you cannot handicap these games the same way you would handicap a regular season game. Use the advice above as a set of guidelines for your preseason football betting and you should see an increase in your bankroll before the regular season kicks off.

Dwayne Bryant is the owner and handicapper of Bullseye Sports Handicapping Service. Dwayne is among the best sports handicappers on the internet since 2000. Dwayne offers free sports picks, including NFL game picks, for those who participate in sports betting online.

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